Introduction to Probability · free preview

Superposition, Thinning, Conditioning and Higher Dimensions

Merging independent processes, splitting by labels, conditioning on counts, and Poisson points in the plane, with the inspection and bus paradoxes.

1. Superposition and thinning

Superposition and thinning

2. Conditioning on a shared count

Conditioning on a shared count

3. Spatial Poisson processes

Spatial Poisson processes

4. Merging two streams

Independent processes of rates 2 and 5 merge. What is the merged stream?

5. Thinning a stream

A rate-6 process thins with p = 1/3 to type 1. What is the type-1 process?

6. A merged quiet window

Two independent processes of rates 1 and 2 per hour merge. What is P(no arrivals in a 30-minute window)? Use e^(-1.5) is about 0.223. Enter like 0.223.

7. Labels given the total

A merged stream of rates 2 and 6 has exactly 4 arrivals in a window. The number of type-1 (rate-2) arrivals is Binomial(4, p). What is p? Enter a fraction like 1/4.

8. Nearest star survival

Stars scatter at intensity 40 per square degree. P(no star within radius 0.1 degrees of a point) is e to the minus 40 pi times 0.1 squared. Using pi about 3.14, compute the exponent's value, like 1.26.

9. In your own words

In your own words, state the most important definition, theorem or method of this lesson and explain what it says.

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