Intermediate Microeconomics · 免费预览
分散化、信息与理性的限度
将不相关的风险汇集起来，标准差的缩小速度类似于根号 n 的倒数；信息具有可计算的期权价值；而阿莱悖论、损失厌恶和小数目偏差则标示出期望效用失效之处。
1. Pooling risks
Pooling risks
2. The value of information
The value of information
3. Allais and independence
Allais and independence
4. Framing and small numbers
Framing and small numbers
5. The pooling law
Pooling 16 uncorrelated risks each at 18 percent deviation leaves what deviation?
6. The forecast's value
Crop A gives 100 in rain and 40 in drought, crop B the reverse, rain 50-50. What is the value of a perfect forecast in utility units?
7. Reading Allais
Why does the Allais pattern violate independence?
8. Behavioral tags
A city rebuilds after a flood that statistics had priced at one-in-two-hundred years, and voters call the risk obvious in hindsight. Which bias is this?
9. Pool to four
With individual deviation 18 percent uncorrelated, compute the pooled deviation at n equals 4 in percent, and write the number.
10. One hundred pools
Same risks at n equals 100, compute the pooled deviation in percent, rounded to one decimal, and write the number.
11. Pooling twenty-five risks
With individual deviation 18 percent uncorrelated, what deviation does a pool of 25 risks carry?
12. Correlation stops the shrinkage
What happens to a pool of perfectly correlated risks, correlation of one?
13. The Allais second choice
In the Allais pair, the second choice offers a 10 percent shot at 5 million versus an 11 percent shot at 1 million. Which do most subjects take?
14. Two labels, one surgery
A surgery described as 90 percent survival draws more takers than the same surgery described as 10 percent mortality. Which effect is at work?
15. The forecast's value
With crop payoffs 100 in rain and 40 in drought and v the identity, compute the value of a perfect forecast, and write the number.
16. A wider pool
With individual deviation 18 percent uncorrelated, compute the pooled deviation at n equals 36, and write the number in percent.